The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
The Trump trade shock is a chance to push long-overdue reforms, rather than tinker with tariffs to appease the US, suggests M Govinda Rao.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
The committee has flagged decisions including the allotment of land to the Aam Aadmi Party for its party office, appointment of Minister Satyendra Jain's daughter as "mission director" of Delhi State Health Mission and a number of purported AAP functionaries as "advisors".
'As the Budget has taken some measures to spur growth, similar action from the MPC may be expected.'
A Rs 525-crore contingency provision during the July-September period led to a 19 per cent fall in IndusInd Bank's share price on Friday (October 25). Contingency provisions are generally made when a lender expects more bad loans in the coming quarters. Shares of the bank on Tuesday (October 29) declined 1.53 per cent to settle at Rs 1,038.2 apiece on the BSE.
After declining to a three-year low in FY24, the private sector investment is expected to fall further in the current financial year, India Ratings said in a research note.. The investments in the private sector are likely to plummet to below 11 per cent of the GDP in FY25, based on the trends from the latest national accounts data and company fillings, it noted.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
'He has been one of the clearest thinkers in the history of business.'
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
Opposition parties in India have demanded the resignation of Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw after a stampede at New Delhi railway station killed 18 people. They blamed the government for "gross mismanagement" and accused them of "covering up" the death toll. The stampede occurred on Saturday night as passengers rushed to board trains for the Maha Kumbh festival in Prayagraj. The Congress, the Left, Trinamool Congress, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal have all criticized the government's handling of the situation, while BJP leaders have defended the government. The incident has highlighted the failure of the Railways and the government to make adequate arrangements for the large number of devotees travelling to Prayagraj.
A sharp correction in stock prices, signs of rural recovery, and lower raw material costs have not been enough to change brokerages' cautious stance on the top-listed paint companies. Concerns over rising competition and weak demand continue to weigh on sentiment.
Headline growth was quite weak heading into the Covid period but averaged 6.4 per cent and 6.7 per cent in the five years between FY16 and FY20 for GVA and GDP respectively, points out Abhishek Upadhyay.
After lagging behind benchmarks and broader indices over the past five years, real estate investment trusts (Reits) have outperformed them since the start of 2024. The four listed Reits have posted an average return of 16 per cent year-to-date, compared to 9.9 per cent for the S&P BSE Sensex and 11 per cent for the National Stock Exchange Nifty.
Tottenham Hotspur hammered 10-man Aston Villa 4-0 in the Premier League on Sunday thanks to four second-half goals, allowing them to close the gap with their Birmingham rivals to two points in the chase for Champions League football next season.
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL) reported a 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in consolidated revenue to Rs 3,670 crore. Organic revenue growth in constant currency was up 14 per cent Y-o-Y. Consolidated operating profit was up 5 per cent to Rs 760 crore, profit before tax grew 10 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 710 crore, and adjusted net profit grew 12 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 490 crore.
Shares of Avenue Supermarts (DMart) have gained about 5 per cent over the past week on better than expected June quarter (Q1FY25) performance, hopes of a recovery in discretionary demand, and margin gains going ahead. The key takeaway from the results was the robust gross margin performance. Riding on improving mix, DMart posted a 34 basis point year-on-year (Y-o-Y) improvement in gross margins to 14.9 per cent.
Defying the bearish sentiment in the markets on Monday, ICICI Bank's share price rose by 2 per cent, reaching an intraday high of Rs 1,234.4 per share on the BSE. With a 1.5 per cent gain at the close, the stock emerged as the top performer on both the BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 indices.
The Street will thus keep an eye on the operating profit margins over the next couple of quarters.
Commercial banks in India reported a sixth consecutive year of rise in their net profits in 2023-24 while bad loans continued to fall, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) annual publication "Trends and Progress of Banking in India", released on Thursday. "Banks' profitability rose for the sixth consecutive year in 2023-24 and continued to rise in H1:2024-25 with the return on assets (RoA) at 1.4 per cent and return on equity (RoE) at 14.6 per cent," the report said.
'... that it once again shies away from renewing its commitment to strategic divestment,' points out A K Bhattacharya.
Chhaava deserves 2 stars for the historically half-baked film that it is, but 4 stars just for its attempt on making a film on Sambhaji, observes Prasanna D Zore.
Currently there are 26 licensed players in the P2P lending sector but only 10-11 are actively operating.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
The gig economy market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17 per cent to reach a gross volume of $455 billion by the end of 2024, according to a white paper by The Forum for Progressive Gig Workers. Estimates suggest the gig economy has the potential to create 90 million jobs and add 1.25 per cent to India's GDP (gross domestic product) over time.
Analysts have largely maintained their positive outlook on HDFC Bank, as the private lender reported in-line results for the October-December quarter (Q3) of the current financial year (2024-25/FY25). They believe the results were 'strong' given the tough macro environment, and relative to peers.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
Engineering and construction major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) reported a 25 per cent rise in net profit attributable to the owners of the company for the January-March quarter of 2024-25, owing to higher revenues and an exceptional gain. For the quarter under review, L&T posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 5,497.3 crore, while revenue rose 10.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 74,392.28 crore.
'Every Indian should move to an EV, and the government should not buy any fossil fuel cars. The government should become the first driver of EV adoption.'
Concerns have been raised over Marico's exposure to Bangladesh in the wake of turmoil in that country. However, the management reiterated expectations of growing domestic business at double digits and maintaining international growth. Marico scaled up its food business by 4 times between FY20-24 and aims to double it again in the next three financial years.
DMart's everyday low pricing model is being replicated aggressively by most players (online as well offline retailers), compelling the firm to keep prices down significantly.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
It is to be seen if SBI under Setty, who will have a three-year term, can ride the economic cycle to take SBI to new heights, navigating some of these challenges.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
